SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 23, 2003
ALCOA INC.
(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)
Pennsylvania | 1-3610 | 25-0317820 | ||
(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation) |
(Commission File Number) |
(I.R.S. Employer Identification Number) |
201 Isabella Street, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania | 15212-5858 | |
(Address of Principal Executive Offices) | (Zip Code) |
Office of Investor Relations | 212-836-2674 | |
Office of the Secretary | 412-553-4707 | |
(Registrants telephone number, including area code) |
Item 12. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
On October 23, 2003, Alcoa Inc. held its third-quarter 2003 earnings conference call, broadcast live by webcast. A transcript of the call and a copy of the slides presented during the call are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are hereby incorporated by reference.
Exhibits:
99.1 | Transcript of Alcoa Inc. third-quarter 2003 earnings call. |
99.2 | Slides presented during Alcoa Inc. third-quarter 2003 earnings call. |
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in the transcript and slides attached hereto relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements involving known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results, performance or achievements of Alcoa to be different from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include (a) the companys inability to complete pending acquisitions or divestitures, or to complete them in the timeframe contemplated, or to realize the projected amount of proceeds from divestitures, (b) the companys inability to achieve the level of cost savings, productivity improvements or earnings growth anticipated by management, whether due to increases in energy costs, raw materials or other factors, (c) unexpected changes in global economic, business, competitive, market and regulatory factors, (d) material adverse changes in aluminum industry conditions generally or in the markets served by Alcoa, including the transportation, building, construction, distribution, packaging, industrial gas turbine, telecommunications and other markets, and (e) the other risk factors summarized in Alcoas Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002 and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
* * * * *
The information in this report shall not be deemed to be filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
2
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
ALCOA INC. | ||
By: |
/S/ LAWRENCE R. PURTELL | |
Lawrence R. Purtell | ||
Executive Vice President and General Counsel |
Dated: October 29, 2003
3
INDEX TO EXHIBITS
Exhibit No. |
Description | |
99.1 |
Transcript of Alcoa Inc. third-quarter 2003 earnings call. | |
99.2 |
Slides presented during Alcoa Inc. third-quarter 2003 earnings call. |
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Exhibit 99.1
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 1
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
October 23, 2003
3:00 pm CT
Operator: |
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Alcoa Third Quarter Analysts Meeting. Your moderator will be Bill Oplinger. Please proceed, Mr. Oplinger. | |
William Oplinger: |
Thank you.
Good afternoon. Thank you for attending Alcoas Third Quarter 2003 Analysts Workshop. At todays meeting we have (Rick) Kelson, Chief Financial Officer, who will give an overview of the third quarter, and Joe Muscari, Group President of Latin America and Asia, who will discuss the Latin American and Asian operations.
Before I turn it over to (Rick) Id like to remind you that in discussing the companys performance today weve included some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements relate to future events and expectations and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Alcoas actual |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 2
results or actions may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.
For a summary of the specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements see Alcoas annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002 and Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2003 filed with the SEC.
Also in our discussion today weve included some non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles under the invest section of our Website.
At this point Id like to turn it over to (Rick) Kelson. | ||
Richard Kelson: |
Thanks, Bill.
Good afternoon. This afternoon I will focus on our strong third quarter results as well as the outlook going forward in the key markets that we serve. Lets get started.
Ill begin with some third quarter highlights. The third quarter had many highlights worth mentioning. Safety performance continues to top the list. We brought our loss work day rate down to 0.09 in the quarter. We continue to make progress towards our goal of zero work related injuries and illnesses.
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ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 3
Income from continuing operations reached 33 cents per share due in part to a reduction in operating costs, which boosted gross margins to 20.8%, the strongest level in two years.
We lowered SG&A by 12% to 5.7% of sales. And we continued to reduce our debt to capital ratio to 38.8% in the quarter, 160 basis point reduction. Year-to-date this ratio has declined by 430 basis points. In the last six months alone weve paid down nearly $1 billion of debt.
We continued to reduce capital spending as we said we would. Disciplined capital spending resulted in $115 million or 40% reduction from the prior year period representing just 62% of depreciation levels.
We moved closer to achieving our cost saving goals by taking out $23 million in costs during the quarter. This leaves us on track not only to meet but to exceed our billion dollar cost challenge by the end of the year.
And finally, our asset divestiture program is progressing well. And were confident that both the proceeds to be realized and the timing are on track. Ill expand on this a little bit later. But first let me turn to safety.
As always, the first place we start when assessing our performance is the level of improvement that weve achieved in safety. The third quarter was an outstanding quarter as we improved our loss work day rate to 0.09. To put this in perspective in this quarter we had just 26 loss work day incidents for nearly 60 million hours worked across the Alcoa global operations. Our target remains 0.075 loss worked days by the year 2005. | ||
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 4
Our continued improvement in this area remains evidence of a strong desire in this organization to continually improve upon the way that we work. Lets turn to a financial overview.
This slide compares our third quarter results with the prior quarter. Relative to the second quarter GAAP earnings from continuing operations improved by $54 million or 24%. This is attributable to a strong alumina market as well as focused cost reduction, which together were able to more than offset a sequential decline in revenues.
Revenues in the third quarter were 5.3 billion, down 3% sequentially but up 3% year-over-year. Cost of goods sold declined to 79.2% of sales versus 79.6% in the prior quarter. SG&A also declined significantly falling by 42 million from the prior quarter to 5.7% of sales from 6.3% of sales.
We continue to work on numerous initiatives throughout the organization to bring SG&A costs down. Im pleased with the success in the third quarter but believe further improvement can and will be achieved.
Our effective tax rate declined in the third quarter to 22% from 26% stemming from the expiration of a prior international audit period. Looking forward we would expect the effective tax rate for the fourth quarter to be 30.5%.
Minority interest expense declined by $21 million in the quarter due to both the completion of the purchase of the outstanding 40.9% minority share of Alcoa Aluminio as well as lower earnings at Alcoa Fujikura. | ||
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 5
Just as an aside, had we expensed stock options in the quarter the net income impact would have been minimal at $5 million. This would compare to $4 million in the second quarter.
Lets move on and talk about our progress on debt reduction. We have emphasized in the past our commitment to reducing our debt to capital ratio to our target range of 25 to 35%. We continued to execute on that objective in the third quarter making substantial progress by reducing our debt to capital ratio by a further 160 basis points from the end of the second quarter. It currently stands at 38.8. We will continue to pay down debt as we generate cash from operations and through proceeds from asset divestitures.
Year-to-date capital spending of 574 million represents 66% of depreciation. And while we expect somewhat of an up tick in the fourth quarter, we should have no trouble being I would say below our target of a billion dollars cap ex for the year.
Lets turn to the segments and lets start with Alumina and Chemicals. Once again for all of the segments the pie charts indicate an idea of the relevant importance of the various markets within the segments. And these are all based on third quarter revenue. Well speak to sequential quarters comparing the third quarter 03 to the second quarter 03.
Strong prices and volumes contributed to a 24 million or a 27% increase in after tax operating income from the prior quarter. Realized prices increased 11% sequentially while volumes rose by 2%. We saw virtually all of that incremental revenue fall to the bottom line. | ||
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 6
On a year-over-year basis realized alumina prices were up 14% and volumes rose 2% resulting in a 22% ATOI increase.
Current business conditions are really fairly straightforward. Spot prices continue to remain high. And the strong A-dollar would negatively affect margins due to cost increases obviously in Australia.
Lets turn to primary metals. On a sequential basis ATOI improved $1 million or 1% from the prior quarter. Although realized pricing increased by 3 cents per pound or 5%, shipments declined by 2% driven largely by the Alumar outage. Additionally we experienced higher energy and alumina costs. Relative to the year ago quarter realized prices increased by 7% while shipments declined by 6%.
As to the current business conditions, LME on a 30-day lag basis is up a penny a pound. In the fourth quarter other issues, which will have bearing from a change from the third, the fourth quarter will bear about half of the cost of the Alumar shutdown, which was due to the electrical outage in July that affected 40% of that smelter production. As we previously disclosed, total net income impact of the shutdown will be about $14 million.
Also as we announced, due to high energy prices in the Pacific Northwest well be curtailing total production at Intalco by 50% to 90,000 tons on November 1st. There should be approximately a $10 million impact in the fourth quarter on that combining both the loss of the BPA subsidy and the curtailment cost that we would anticipate incurring.
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ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 7
Move to flat rolled products. The can sheet business contributes a large share of the revenues for this segment with the rest split between transportation markets, building and construction, and the distribution channel. On a sequential basis after tax operating income was up $3 million or 5%, shipments down 1%, revenue down 2%. Improved profitability in canned sheet was offset by weakness in Europe.
As to the current business conditions we expect the normal seasonal slowdown in canned sheet for the fourth quarter and soft economic conditions continue in Europe.
Moving to engineered products, this segment has the largest exposure to aero, industrial gas turbines, and building and construction, and yet it continued to show notable improvement. On a sequential basis despite lower revenues ATOI increased by 2 million or 5% driven by higher revenues in our forging businesses in both the aerospace and commercial vehicle markets, continued benefits also from cost reductions at Howmet, the earlier restructurings that weve frequently talked to you about.
As we look to the current business conditions, anticipate higher automotive volumes following the model year change over in third quarter. However, wed also expect continued pressure on industrial gas turbines and some seasonal weakening expected in the residential building and construction market.
Moving to the packaging and consumer segment, as an aside this segment now includes the protective packaging business acquired as part of the IVEX acquisition in 2002. This business has been reclassified from
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ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 8
discontinued operations to continuing ops as we decided not to sell the business based on an assessment of market conditions.
On a sequential basis after tax operating income declined by 5 million or 8%. Both our closures and food service businesses experience seasonally weaker volumes. And also the reclassification of the protective packaging business that I just mentioned impacted the quarter due to a depreciation catch up for the period. And that was approximately $5 million.
As to the current business conditions, season strength is expected in the fourth quarter in the consumer products group expected due in most part to the holiday season. And well also anticipate seasonal weakness in closures.
Our other remaining segment, as weve frequently mentioned, the primary driver in this segment is automotive demand. It contains our Alcoa Fujikura business unit. After tax operating income was down sequentially $9 million, essentially lower volumes from ASL Automotive due to summer shutdowns and the winding down of the customer contracts, which were partially offset by seasonal strength in our building products business.
Its also worth noting that AFL Automotive was awarded new contracts for the 2004 year by VW, Ford, and GM. Current business conditions also affected anticipating higher automotive volumes after the model year changeover in the third quarter and would anticipate seasonal decline in the residential and building and construction markets.
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ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 9
Well move on and talk about our cost savings. Relative to our billion dollar cost challenge we continued to make substantial progress in the third quarter. Cost savings in the quarter were $23 million bringing the annual run rate on cost savings to $964 million.
On an annualized basis (unintelligible) declines have accounted for 746 million and GA and SE has accounted for the remaining $218 million. Our current quarterly run rate of 241 million indicates that we have 9 million left to achieve. And as I stated earlier, this is well within our grasp.
Highlights of the third quarter savings included substantial reduced administrative expenses across the organization, improved yields in our forging business, continued procurement savings noticeably at AFL Automotive, and continued productivity improvements at Howmet.
Next Id like to turn to our ROC challenge. This chart shows our profitability measured by ROC. The red line represents the Bloomberg top quintile ROC entry. The blue line represents Bloombergs measure of Alcoa over a rolling four quarter time horizon. And the green line shows our quarter returns annualized.
On this basis weve shown continuing improvement over the course of this year reaching an annualized ROC of 7.8% in the third quarter, up from 6.4% at the start of the year. As you know, this goal remains an integral target within the company, to which performance and incentive compensation is linked. We remain committed to it and will continue to strive to achieve top quintile. Its a goal, which we hold ourselves accountable, as Ive said many times before.
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ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 10
Next Id like to discuss the progress on our divestiture initiative. As youre aware, we are in the midst of a sizable divestiture program. Among the businesses that were identified for sale at the end of 2002 are specialty chemicals, packaging equipment, North American architectural products, commodity automotive fasteners, and several foil facilities. The effort is currently on track to realize proceeds in the range of the 750 to 1 billion and in the 18 month time period that we originally defined.
To date weve announced the proceeds at 75 million stemming from the sale of Latin American PET packaging business to Amcor. Im pleased to tell you we have a handful of letters of intent for the remainder of the assets held for sale. And most of these will be announced during the fourth quarter, some hopefully coming very soon. But we do anticipate these to be on target.
Additionally I would like to update you on the inert anode project. In short we continue to make progress on the inert anode. Weve completed testing over a three-week period in commercial pots in (Mecina). However, continued progress on the technology is necessary to ensure commercial viability.
In particular further work needs to be done to demonstrate anode life targets and metal purity retention over long periods. We would anticipate that in 2004 we would have completed the work necessary to reach a decision on the commercial viability of the project.
Id like to turn to a quick update of our growth initiative. Were continuing to move forward with our strategy of improving our top
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ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 11
position in the up stream segments. And I believe several projects merit mention.
In alumina were nearing completion of the 250,000 metric ton expansion at the Jamalco refinery. This is an expansion at $460 a ton. We announced the 250,000 metric ton expansion at Suriname to be completed in July of 2005. This is capacity added at $260 a ton. We approved a 600,000 metric ton expansion at Pinjarra to be completed by 2005. And this is also in the $450 a ton range.
In aluminum weve announced a memorandum of understanding with the Kingdom of Bahrein paving the way for us to acquire up to a 26% stake in that facility. This also covers the potential expansion for a sixth line as well as a long-term alumina supply agreement. If the sixth line were to take place, this would be a 1.1 million metric ton smelter.
We announced an MOU with Brunei economic development board for a smelter feasibility study in Brunei. This study will be conducted over the next two years.
We also approved an $83 million mine expansion at the Three Oaks Mine in Central Texas. This will provide a low cost source of fuel for Rockdales power generation stations for the next 35 years.
These are only a few of the projects that were engaged on in order to ensure that we continue to move aggressively down the global cost curve in these businesses. Later Joe Muscari will touch on our growth initiatives in Asia and Latin America.
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ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 12
Let me summarize. In summary, our third quarter results evidence that we continue to improve our business through growth, reducing costs, and driving cash generation. We are well positioned to leverage our strengths as the economy strengthens.
And with that Id like to turn it over to Joe, who will discuss our growth strategies in Asia and Latin America. Thank you.
Joe? | ||
Joseph Muscari: |
Thanks, (Rick).
Good afternoon. Id like to share with you in the next 15 minutes or so some of the things Alcoa is doing in Latin America and Asia as well as our perspectives around both of the regions.
We believe both regions offer attractive growth opportunities for us. In Latin America our objectives are to strengthen and grow our low cost primary position as well as focus our downstream operations on export and high evaluative products. The recent Aluminio transaction where we took over the Camargo position enabled us to take a large step toward executing this strategy.
In Asia we remain very positive. Im still as bullish on China as I was when I met with you over a year and a half ago. We continue to make steady progress on implementing our growth plans there although SARS and the changing governments have had a slowing down effect on us. |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 13
As we look at Latin America, this gives you an overview of where our locations are for our various businesses. Ill just give you a second to take a look at it.
In terms of specifics around our strategy we have moved our focus in flat rolled products to higher value added, thin foil markets as well as having our business there become much more export focused. In packaging we sold PET and are in the process of selling Latasa while we have our closures business globally aligned with CSI.
The extrusion business is leveraging its low cost position to grow exports, primarily to North America. And it is also focusing on segments where we can differentiate ourselves in the domestic markets.
On the primary side of the portfolio our objectives basically is to strengthen and grow our low cost positions. These assets are among the lowest cost in the system. And Ill show you a little more on this in a minute. We continue to invest in low cost hydroelectric power in order to secure our smelter positions over the long-term. And this in essence also provides the basis for our growth. And were also pursuing opportunities to expand refining capacity at Alumar as well as develop our bauxite position to support further growth.
This graph of refining costs give you a perspective of a low-cost position of our two refineries in Brazil, Pocos and San Luis. And as you can see, both are well below the global average. | ||
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 14
As we look at the smelting cost curve, global cost curve, you can see both locations are also below the curve from the standpoint of in relation to the global average.
I mentioned, investment and low-cost hydropower as a basis for our growth strategy. This gives you an overview of how we are progressing towards that. Were targeting approximately 1,000 megawatts. And were in various stages on the way towards achieving that. Part of the way there through Machadinho, which is now operational, Barre Grande, which is under construction, and others that are under development. The economics, as weve noted, are attractive with delivered costs in the 8 to $10 per megawatt hour range.
The upstream opportunities we have center on development of the Juruti mine, brownfield expansions in both refining and smelting at Alumar, as well as additional greenfield expansions as we secure power. And all of these are at relatively attractive low investment costs.
Lets switch now to Asia. Asia is expected to drive over 50% of worldwide aluminum consumption over this decade. And China will account for approximately 50% of that.
Alcoa has established an important presence in the region over the years that basically allows us to pursue an aggressive growth plan that will focus on higher valuated products as well as take advantage of low cost production for global sourcing. We recently restructured our canned sheet joint venture with Kobe Steel. And there are two pending major investments in China at Pingguo and Bohai, which Ill talk about in a minute. | ||
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 15
As we look at primary metal supply in China, wed just like to take a few minutes around that subject because I know its a point of interest. But we see a slight surplus. Capacity has expanded strongly. We have not, as yet, seen much impact from small high cost capacity exiting. Product growth, however, has been more subdued due to high cost alumina, regional electricity shortages, and environmental pressures.
Most significantly though Chinas aluminum consumption continues to grow at a very high rate, which results in China continuing to be a net importer when you look at the entire aluminum metal balance picture. And this is pretty much in line with what we thought would happen when I spoke to you the last time. And the government also still seems to be committed to managing the capacity growth.
This is a snapshot of the metal balance in 2002. And as you can see on this slide, when scrap imports are added to semi-fabricated imports, the country was in a net import position. And were basically seeing the same pattern, as we looked at 2003 through August.
The consumption side of China is reflective of both a developing economy, which is characterized by high consumption in the construction and power sectors, as you can see on this chart, as well as a more developed economy where consumer goods and manufacturer sector consumption levels are relatively strong. So were seeing both of those occurring in China right now.
This is a quick snapshot of our existing and future positions in China. I mentioned earlier the experience gained in businesses such as our | ||
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 16
Shanghai foil operation and Tianjin closures businesses and other positions allows us to move forward with larger investments with a relatively high degree of confidence that we can achieve attractive returns over time.
As we look at our China projects, we continue to make steady progress on implementing the growth plans. Shanghai expansion is going well. And we expect to start up at the end of the first quarter of next year. The project is ahead of schedule and under budget. Were moving forward with a flat rolled products joint venture at Bohai with CITIC. The 220,000 ton sheet and foil facility is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2005. And the project is currently making its way through the government approval process.
The Pingguo refining and smelting joint venture with Chalco has not gone as fast as we would have hoped. But weve made good progress towards securing power for the project. And our relationship and cooperation with Chalco, our strategic partner in China, is excellent.
Just to recap, we have a very strong, competitive primary position in Latin America today. And we intend to build on that position in the future.
In Asia we intend to grow profitably through leveraging our experience and market knowledge, through strong partnerships with CITIC and Chalco, as well as by taking advantage of cross regional opportunities that basically leverage our global position.
Thank you. | ||
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 17
William Oplinger: |
At this point I would like to take questions from the room here first and then go to the phone. Before you ask your question, please announce who you are and your firm. | |
(Dan Rolling): |
(Dan Rolling) with Merrill Lynch a question for Joe. On a recent trip to China and we met with Chalco they basically said the joint venture between you and they relating to power seemed to be they implied it was basically resolved, that the cold fired power plant was going to be built with basically ownership by Alcoa, Chalco, and I think it was (Yanzoo) Coal. Is that anywhere near accurate, and what can you tell us? | |
Joseph Muscari: |
Well were actually looking at and were close on a hydro position as well as thermal. And one is a hard asset position. The other is more virtual. But we are close. So in terms of their presenting a positive presentation in terms of where we were, I would say that is accurate. We havent finalized anything yet, but were getting closer. | |
(Dan Roling): |
By year end? | |
Joseph Muscari: |
Well some of this is tied to the overall project approval. In other words its tough to nail down the power before we have the whole project approved. So theyre co-related in terms of pushing to get the overall project approved, first, and then we can go ahead on the power. | |
Earlier we had been focusing on getting the power so we can get the project. I think were close enough to say, hey, you need to get the overall budgets approved now. Were hoping by year-end. That might be viewed as some as optimistic. But President Gou of Chalco, who I met with a few weeks ago, indicated that was a strong possibility. |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 18
Alberto Arias): |
Its Alberto Arias from Goldman Sachs. A question to Rick when you talked about business conditions, you mentioned a lot of seasonal factors. I just wanted to know besides the seasonal factors one of your biggest competitors was mentioning yesterday that they do not see any signs of improvement. What is your assessment of business conditions? And if you see a positive surprise, where do see it; if you see a negative surprise, where do you see it in terms of demand? | |
Richard Kelson: |
Well the two toughest markets I think for us and at this point theyve actually become fairly small but I would say the two toughest markets are still ASL Telecommunications and IGT. But theyre no longer large pieces for us. I think were going to continue Ive said most of this year I think were continuing to see strong alumina. Youre seeing strong flat prices will be affected by the strong A-dollar on a negative from a cost side. But it seems fairly strong. You know, were seeing I think first signs of perhaps things like commercial vehicles feeling better, truck and trailer. And those are frequently early indicators. | |
You know, so Id say were seeing things feeling neutral to starting to feel somewhat better about some of the markets. And Id say, you know, we talked a lot about metal prices up. But of course again youve got issues of the currency out of Australia. But were, you know, 60 some percent domestic. And ultimately we should see some benefit certainly in the year smelting system, from the weaker dollar as well as the cost cutting that weve done. | ||
So were you know, Im not saying we see any exciting trends or great trends. But were not feeling that things are fairly negative. Were feeling |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 19
kind of neutral to positive in some areas with the caveats Ive mentioned that there are niches that are going the wrong way. | ||
(Wayne Atwell): |
Yeah, (Wayne Atwell), Morgan Stanley two quick questions. The expenses you mentioned in smelting, was that pre-tax or after-tax? | |
Richard Kelson: |
Im not sure what youre referring to. | |
(Wayne Atwell): |
You had talked about Brazil and Intalco. | |
Richard Kelson: |
Oh those were after tax. | |
(Wayne Atwell): |
Okay. And theres been quite a jump in freight rates around the world. Our understanding is whats already booked is pretty constant, but the spot rates have gone through the roof. How do you transport your alumina to your smelters? Is that under long-term contracts, or is that under a spot contract set up? | |
Richard Kelson: |
No. Most of our freight is long-term contracted on our own. And we have our own steamship that does a lot of our own. | |
(Wayne Atwell): |
So the rise in rates wouldnt really be affecting you significantly at all. | |
Richard Kelson: |
Internally? | |
(Wayne Atwell): |
Well your costs. | |
Richard Kelson: |
No, I mean, we should be able to hand a freight increase. Im looking at the freight increases that were seeing out there as a sign that economy is |
ALCOA
Visual data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 20
actually picking up and theres, you know, economic activity out there. There is tightness in freight. | ||
(Wayne Atwell): |
Well I think some freight rates have actually quadrupled and theyre at all time highs. So the spot markets gone crazy for a number of different reasons. But if youve got longer-term contracts through your own ships then you wouldnt be hurt. Thanks. | |
Richard Kelson: |
That depends on the market. I mean, there are other markets. | |
(Victor Lazarovich): |
(Victor Lazarovich), (BMO, Nesbitt, Burns) Ive got a couple of questions. One with respect to the alumina division performance sequentially weve seen now for a couple of quarters that your results are getting better. And my understanding is that youve been essentially contracting out for a number of years under long-term contracts tied primarily to metal prices. And yet your realization seems to be running ahead of metal price movements, and your volumes seem to be running ahead of what normal capacity creep would be. Can you explain where the volume and price is coming from? | |
Richard Kelson: |
Well a number of things first off, weve mentioned in prior quarters that we consider Point Comfort to be a swing plant. Weve increased the capacity at Point Comfort to take care of various spot prices. | |
As we have curtailed portions and lines, the lines weve taken the alumina that would have gone to those facilities and weve been able to put that into the marketplace. Weve consistently had what we would like to call good creep. Weve taken the creep and put it in, you know, to the marketplace. So its a combination of those things as well as those long- |
ALCOA
Visual data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 21
term contracts move on the average price. And while its not a one to one certainly, the escalating spot will eventually have some impact on the price. So third party pricing is also coming up somewhat. | ||
But you are correct. Fundamentally, I mean, we work on longer-term contracts. Having said that, we have done all the things Ive just mentioned to take advantage of the spot price, and well continue to look for all the places we can either generate creep or take alumina inventory and turn it into cash. | ||
(VictorLazarovich): |
The other question had to do with Joes comment that youre restructuring the Latin American extrusion business primarily as an export business into North America. Youve got one of the largest North American extrusion businesses now. Are you running out of capacity in the US? Is that why youre repositioning? | |
Joseph Muscari: |
No. Part of it is the Latin American operation is, as you probably know, much smaller than the North American. And were utilizing the Latin American to supplement the opportunities we have in North America for low cost products. Some are in areas that we have not been competitive in in North America so they represent some growth opportunities for us to be able to take advantage of. | |
And for Latin America it makes sense for that business to have a balance between their domestic market and the export market from a currency exposure standpoint. | ||
Did that answer your question? |
ALCOA
Visual data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 22
(Victor Lazarovich): |
(Unintelligible) | |
Joseph Muscari: |
No. No, no were not. In fact, were working hand in glove with them in terms of market identification for opportunities and products that we select to go into those market segments. | |
(Victor Lazarovich): |
Its optimizing the whole system. | |
Joseph Muscari: |
Exactly. As I mentioned before, particularly around China but it also applies to Brazil, of recognizing the market position we have around the world in Europe and North America and to better utilize some of the low cost assets we have in places like Brazil and China. | |
(Larry Peck): |
Hi. (Larry Peck) with Copper Beach Capital you know, theres a lot of talk obviously about the expansions in China on the primary side. Is there anything noteworthy on their rolling side in terms of capacity going on there from a country basis? | |
Joseph Muscari: |
Yes. The Bohai project is essentially a rolling project. Its flat rolled product and foil. We have a pretty good position in the foil business. The Bohai project will build on that. And probably between the two facilities we would end up with roughly a 20% market share in foil plus have a fairly sizable position in sheet that would be focused on the more high value added imports that are coming in to China today. So yes, that project is all about flat rolled products segment of the business. | |
William Oplinger: |
Now Ill take a question from the phone. |
ALCOA
Visual data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 23
Operator: |
Well take a question from (John Tumazos), Prudential Financial. Go ahead please. | |
(John Tumazos): |
Good work. For a long time Alcoa hadnt been a builder of smelters, although some of the companies you acquired had been. And now theres three projects, 3/4 million tons, 2.15 billion plus the considerations in China, the Komi Republic of Russia, Bahrain, Brunei, and Im forgetting theres one more. Excuse me. How many of these should we expect Alcoa to do? Is it possible that, if you get power solutions in China and good negotiations in Bahrain and Brunei that you could do all of them? | |
Richard Kelson: |
I think its definitely possible. Theres a different timeframe for each of them. You know, youre going to see Brunei the study isnt done for two more years to even see if the feasibility study is 24 months. | |
I think there is a clear possibility. And you know weve decided to go ahead with Iceland. And well try to come to agreement for Bahrain by next year sometime. That you have to remember is an existing smelter with a (sift) line going in. But I think its possible. These are all low cost. Theyll all move us in on the cash cost curve. And theyre all really quite respectable low cost capital relatively speaking. | ||
(John Tumazos): |
Can we infer that acquisitions are going to be less of a focus than they had been from the mid-90s to 2000? | |
Richard Kelson: |
Well I think in the upstream area at this point we like our brownfield and greenfield opportunities as well or better than anything that we see as a possible acquisition I think. Thats what you can infer, as weve chosen to put our money where we see the best economic return. |
ALCOA
Visual data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 24
(John Tumazos): |
Thank you. | |
Operator: |
Well take our next question from (Tina Peterson), with the media. Go ahead please. | |
(Tina Peterson): |
Yes, hello. I just wanted to ask you a question on Intalco. And the BPA has just announced that theyre going to roll back that power rates by 7.4% pending the signing by some of the utility litigants. And Im just wondering if that might change your plans for curtailing capacity at Intalco. | |
Richard Kelson: |
That would be the roll back on the projected rate. And essentially thats been taken into consideration in this current decision that comes to their 90,000 tons. | |
(Tina Peterson): |
Okay. So your plans to curtail production that you announced last week, that will remain in place? | |
Richard Kelson: |
On the facts as I understand them today, thats correct. | |
(Tina Peterson): |
Okay, thank you. | |
(Chuck Bradford): |
(Chuck Bradford) from (Bradford) Research with all the expansions in the smelters in China clearly theyre going to have to be importing a lot more alumina, presumably a fair bit from you all. What do you know about available port capacity in ships to make that work? And who pays the freight? |
ALCOA
Visual data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 25
Joseph Muscari: |
One, I dont think port capacity is an issue. China has plenty of deep sea ports. And freight is something that normally is negotiated, and it can differ contract for contract. But I dont see the port as terms of transportation and availability of ships as being a problem. | |
Richard Kelson: |
I probably should have answered that and (Wayne)s question. The bulk of our third party sales, the freights borne by the customer. | |
(Wayne Atwell): |
(Wayne Atwell) again Joe, I have a question on Brazil. Could you give us a feel for when these expansions in power might be complete? And is this to provide power for existing smelters, or is this for potential growth opportunities, greenfield or brownfield? | |
Joseph Muscari: |
Its both. Our first target is to gain self-sufficiency for the smelters we have. Secondly to enable the brownfield opportunities that we have at Alumar, that would be the next target. And then potentially longer-term wed be looking at greenfield. But thats some ways down the road. So we set a longer-term 10-year type target for putting this together. And as you know, hydro projects take quite a number of years from beginning to finish. So this is a longer-term (unintelligible). | |
(Wayne Atwell): |
Is there anyway you could give us a breakdown on how much is to be provided for existing facilities, and how much is growth, and when the projects might be completed? | |
Joseph Muscari: |
Yeah, you have roughly on existing were looking at something like 55% of the existing of that 1,000 megawatts, 55%, in that range. | |
Man: |
(Unintelligible) |
ALCOA
Visual data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 26
Joseph Muscari: |
The timing well, the Machadinho, as I mentioned, is done. But our Grande is Id say three years out, two years out, from completion. The ones where we have concessions and that are under development I think were looking at within the next four years as being done. That would take us to about help me with the number, John, but about 65% or 60% of the 1,000 megawatts, in that range? | |
Man: |
(Unintelligible) | |
Man: |
Operating plus current concessions would take us slightly above that. | |
Joseph Muscari: |
We can give you more detail on that later, if youd like it. But thats ballpark in terms of (unintelligible). | |
Man: |
And thats all over the next sort of four to five years. | |
Operator: |
Well take a question from (Frank Dunna), (Adage Capital). Go ahead please. | |
(Frank Dunna): |
Mine just got answered. I dont have any more. Thanks. | |
(Dan Roling): |
(Rick), on the Australian (Dan Roling) with Merrill Lynch on the Australian dollar, I may have heard in the past that you guys used to hedge it out. And Im wondering if you hedging policy on the A-dollar, as it relates to your ongoing operating costs in Australia, has changed, if those contracts have rolled off, and what it means if any of thats true? Its a big assumption. |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 27
Richard Kelson: |
Well, as I said before, first off in a general sense we find that most of the system is fairly well naturally hedged. And we kind of test that regularly. You are correct that we used to have a more extensive hedging of the A-dollar cost. We have some of that still in place. But over time weve taken more of a position that the natural hedge inside the company takes care of that. So youll see us, you know, as Ive commented several time, see the effect of the A-dollar as we go through the year on the costing side in Australia. | |
(Alberto Arias): |
Yes, (Alberto Arias) from Goldman Sachs a couple of quick things on power in China and in Brazil. Theres been a lot of reports about the higher cost of power in China, shortage of electricity. How much of this is a structural problem that could potentially impact the supply of aluminum in China? | |
And second question on Brazil some of your power contracts expire next year. And whats the impact on some of your cost curves that you have presented once you have to change those power rates to more market rates? | ||
Joseph Muscari: |
Well let me start with the Brazil question first. These contracts are under negotiation plus alternative supply sources are under review. So were hoping to be as good or better than we are today. | |
With regard to China, I guess the best way to describe it you know, as we look at China long-term, the long-term inherent potential for power is very good. Its a question of how quickly that can be developed, as you look at the inherent hydropower potential that you have and you look at the coal reserves that China has. |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 28
So from a long-term perspective it looks positive. However, as you look at the near-term and you read about shortages that occur in China in their different cities, thats going to be a reality for the next number of years until the infrastructure in power gets developed enough to where theyre in an excess position. | ||
(Alex Latzer): |
(Alex Latzer), Merrill Lynch I had a question regarding Chinas balance. You have a good slide there where you show the aluminum, the exports, and the semi fab demand. And Im wondering going forward what do you see the semi fab capacity ultimately doing within China? Will it ultimately reach the level that well start to see significantly less aluminum ingot exports, or has there been enough growth in the fabrication capacity in the peripheral Asian countries so that there really isnt an advantage one way or the other whether China exports aluminum and its fabricated and then brought back in. | |
Joseph Muscari: |
Yeah, I think the way to look at it is its really the internal consumption thats driving the net metal short balance. That in turn translates back into the manufacturing side. And the manufacturing side from the aluminum standpoint has been growing, however, not rapidly enough to keep up with the total demand side. So you see the import of products like sheet and high value added extrusions increase. Theyve been increasing over time to satisfy the local demand. | |
And I think I havent seen anything that would indicate that that balance is going to be upset at least in the near-term and thats just two to three years to the extent, you know, that you would see a major difference in what weve presented here. |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 29
I think the chart I presented last time I was here sort of presented some supply and demand curves that gave a range of where wed expect it to be. If you look at those today, its probably not too much different. | ||
(Wayne Atwell): |
(Wayne Atwell) again last year in the fourth quarter industrial companies seemed to get hit pretty hard by higher health costs. Alcoa has a lot of people around the world. And I think health costs are going up 12 or 13%. Are we likely to see a meaningful step up in your costs when you put out your estimates for that next year? I think most people renew their programs at the end of the year for the next calendar year. What are we likely to see when you tell us what the health picture looks like for 04? | |
Richard Kelson: |
Are you talking about health and welfare? | |
(Wayne Atwell): |
Yeah, well I mean healthcare for your employees. | |
Richard Kelson: |
Yeah, basic health and welfare costs well were working at that subject across the boards and doing everything from, you know, rebidding our prescription drug programs, et cetera. So youre looking for avoided costs. But were also aggressively looking at what our various copays and structures should be. So were hopeful that were going to mitigate a large portion of the actual health and welfare costs as we go into next year. | |
I wouldnt hesitate I mean, Id hesitate to guess right now. But we will not see the full extent of that kind of increase because the activity that weve been taking inside the company to look at both consumerism for our employees and choice in the structures that we have and some of the other alternatives that were pursuing to reduce those costs. So we havent |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 30
totally finished out next year, but I dont see it in the same range due in large part to internal efforts. | ||
(Chuck Bradford): |
(Chuck Bradford) of (Bradford Research) again Id like to go back to China, if you dont mind. Theres been a lot of talk about maybe a bubble is developing because of some pretty fast growth rates, you know, in the 20+% range every place you look. Do you see any signs of that in your business in China? | |
Joseph Muscari: |
Havent seen it yet, and recently theres been some credit tightening. And even with the credit tightening we havent seen any slowdown in the growth. | |
What is occurring and its been occurring now for a number of years is the growth of the consuming class in China. So you have a large population that is consuming as well as the export base that theyve developed. So those are the two things that are driving the aluminum growth right now. And I havent seen anything that would indicate that its slowing down. | ||
(Alberto Arias): |
Yes, (Alberto Arias) from Goldman Sachs. With regards to inert anode, if you could elaborate a little bit more about the constant delays that we see in the process, I remember the previous presentation you were talking about year-end this year making the decision. Now youre talking about 2004; however, youre saying that youre making progress. What is going on with the process that is causing this delay in inert anode? | |
Richard Kelson: |
Well I think weve said this many times before. It is an R&D project. And while we believe weve proven the process itself, for the issue to be commercially viable it has to have metal purity and longevity of life over a |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 31
sufficient period to make the cost commercially viable. And whats happening now are the things that you would expect as you try to take something from the laboratory and make it commercial. So its a classic R&D. Youve got to take it out, and you do everything from destructive testing, the three-week testing that we talked about in (Massena). And essentially we need to get to the point where we can convince ourselves its a commercial issue. | ||
We know we can make metal. We know we can get it at the purity level that we need. The issue is can we make it at the purity level and have the anode last long enough to make the commercial success that we hope it will. And its what you get when you get R&D. So its been pushed back, and were hopeful that well be able to reach that decision some time next year. | ||
(Mike Morrisroe): |
Yes, (Mike Morrisroe) from Bear Stearns I just wanted to go back to the alumina contract again. Its my understanding that about 20 to 30% of your contracts roll off each year. a) Is that right? And then b) should we expect youre going to be pushing for a higher percentage of the LME given that tightness? And finally, can you estimate or quantify what the impact on elevations could be next year even in a flat metal price environment? | |
Richard Kelson: |
Well, as you undoubtedly know, we wont project, you know, our next years realizations. But you are correct that a percentage of the contracts roll off each year. And I think its safe to say that every time they roll off we look to maximize the price that were able to get. So youll see that effort go on. And you are correct, obviously alumina is tight. |
ALCOA
Visual Data, 3rd Quarter Analyst
Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 32
Caglar Somek: |
(Caglar Somek) from Credit Suisse First Boston actually my question is to Rick. I was just wondering given these expansion plans, you know, whether or not you can actually project the capital expenditure for 2004 and 2005? Do you have any targets in place like in 2003? | |
Richard Kelson: |
Well as we look forward, you know, were working on those right now as we come toward year-end. But I would anticipate leave the major projects out for the second that next year I see no reason why we wouldnt have the same kind of basic CAPEX target that we currently have this year for the normal business of the company, something in the order of the $1 billion or less. And were working out how much of the project spend would occur next year project spends. We havent come to that conclusion yet. And as youve heard Joe and as Ive talked, some of these are very moving targets. But well refine that later. | |
Weve made the point before these are the upstream is sufficient with free cash flow to basically be self-funding. And well be sliding the various targets to meet market demand and the decisions that we make to balance out the CAPEX. But well have more on 04 and 05 later about that as the projects become further along. | ||
William Oplinger: |
At this point since it appears that there are no more questions | |
Richard Kelson: |
I was going to say I did get one question on the way up, which I probably should answer, which is I was asked the effective tax rate for next year. And we would say 30.5 is what were using. |
ALCOA
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Moderator: William Oplinger
10-23-03/3:00 pm CT
Page 33
William Oplinger: |
Thanks. Since there are no more questions, well conclude the third quarter analysts conference. And Id like to thank you for attending. Thank you. |
END
3rd Quarter 2003
Analyst Conference
October 23, 2003
Exhibit 99.2
New York, NY
Todays discussion may include forward-looking
statements
within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1995. Such statements relate to future events and
expectations and involve known and unknown risks and
uncertainties. Alcoas actual results or actions may differ
materially from those projected in the forward-looking
statements. For a summary of the specific risk factors that could
cause results to differ
materially from those expressed in the
forward-looking statements, please refer to Alcoas Form 10-K
for the year ended December 31, 2002, in addition to the
Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30,
2003
filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Forward-Looking Statements
Richard B. Kelson
Executive VP and CFO
Continued improvement in safety performance
Income from continuing operations $0.33 per
diluted
share up from $0.27 in the second quarter and $0.24
a year-ago
Gross Margin of 20.8%, highest in two years
SG&A down 12% sequentially to 5.7% of sales
Continued improvement in balance sheet with debt to
capitalization falling 160 bp to 38.8%
3rd Quarter Highlights
Disciplined capital spending, a 40% or $115
million
reduction from prior-year period
Cost savings
of $23 million, remain solidly on track to
meet and exceed the $1.0 billion cost challenge
Divestiture of Assets held for Sale on track
Sale of Latin America PET packaging business recently
completed for $75 million
3rd Quarter Highlights (continued)
Rate (injuries per 200,000 hrs.)
Safety
LWD Incident Rate
Continued strong performance in 3Q 2003
33 fewer
incidents
(annualized) in
2003 vs. 2002
* Reynolds, Howmet/Huck included beginning in 2002
** IVEX, Fairchild, and other 2002/2003 new acquisitions
0.15
0.14
0.075
0.09
0.11
0.81
0.77
0.75
0.46
0.49
0.46
0.36
0.23
0.16
0.99
0.18
0.11
0.18
0.15
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002*
1Q 03
2Q 03
3Q 03
2005
Milestone
Alcoa*
Including Acquisitions **
2005 Milestone
3rd Quarter 2003
Financial Overview
In Millions
3Q03
2Q03
Fav/(Unfav)
LME 3-Month Average ($/MT)
$1,420
$1,380
$40
Sales
$5,322
$5,485
($163)
Cost of Goods Sold
$4,213
$4,368
$155
% of Sales
79.2%
79.6%
0.4%
SG&A
$303
$345
$42
% of Sales
5.7%
6.3%
0.6%
Effective Tax Rate
21.6%
25.9%
4.3%
Minority Interests
$54
$75
$21
GAAP Net Income
$280
$216
$64
GAAP Income From Continuing
Operations
$283
$229
$54
Continued Progress on Debt Reduction
Nearly $1 billion debt reduction in last 6 months
Debt-to-capital reduced by 460 basis points to 38.8% from
43.4% at end of 1Q 2003
Continued disciplined capital
spending, 33% or $282 million
year-over-year decline
$1 billion remains target for full year
460 Basis
Point
Reduction
300 Basis
Points
160 Basis
Points
43.4%
40.4%
38.8%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
Alignment: Bauxite mining, alumina refining and chemicals production
Alumina & Chemicals
ATOI Performance:
3rd Party
Revenue
Intersegment
Revenue
Markets:
Current Business Conditions:
Stronger Australian $ would impact
margins
Spot prices continue high
Negatives
Positives
+27%
+22%
0
40
80
120
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
$ Millions
58
60
62
64
66
LME Cent/Lb
ATOI
LME
Alignment: 3.9 million mt of smelting capacity, with 595 kmt currently idled*
Primary Metals
ATOI Performance:
3rd Party
Revenue
Intersegment
Revenue
Markets:
Current Business Conditions:
Alumar electrical outage impact split
evenly between 3Q and
4Q
Additional expense related to shutdown
at Intalco
LME on a 30 day lag basis is up
$0.01
per pound
Negatives
Positives
-7%
+1%
* Includes recently announced Intalco curtailment of 90kmt, effective November 1st
120
140
160
180
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
$ Millions
58
60
62
64
66
LME cents/lb
ATOI
LME
Alignment: Aluminum sheet and plate for aerospace applications, rigid container
sheet for beverage cans and mill products
Flat Rolled Products
ATOI Performance:
Packaging
Auto
Aero
Commercial
Vehicle
Building &
Construction
Distribution &
Other
Markets:
Current Business Conditions:
Seasonal slowdown in can sheet in 4Q
Soft economic conditions in Europe
Negatives
Positives
+5%
+28%
0
15
30
45
60
75
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
$ Millions
Alignment: Hard and soft alloy extrusions, aluminum forgings, Alcoa Fasteners &
Howmet products
Engineered Products
ATOI Performance:
Auto
Building &
Construction
Commercial
Vehicle
Distribution &
Other
IGT
Aero
Markets:
Current Business Conditions:
Continued pressure on IGT
Some seasonal weakening in residential
Building and
Construction
Higher automotive volumes following
model year changeovers in 3Q
Negatives
Positives
+5%
+39%
-50
-25
0
25
50
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
$ Millions
Alignment: Reynolds consumer products, closures, flexible packaging, and
packaging graphics design
Packaging & Consumer
ATOI Performance:
Consumer
Products
Closures
Markets:
Current Business Conditions:
Flexible Packaging
& Other
Seasonal weakness in Closures
Seasonal strength in Consumer
Products
Negatives
Positives
-8%
+6%
0
20
40
60
80
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
$ Millions
Alignment: Alcoa Fujikura, residential building products and automotive
structures
Other
ATOI Performance:
Auto
Building &
Construction
Tele
Commercial
Vehicle
Markets:
Current Business Conditions:
Seasonal decline in residential building &
construction
Higher automotive volumes following
model year changeovers in 3Q
Negatives
Positives
-53%
0%
-40
-20
0
20
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
$ Millions
We expect to
surpass the $1
billion Cost Challenge
Quarterly Run Rate in Millions of dollars
Cost Savings on Track to Exceed $1
Billion Goal
1Q 01
2Q 01
3Q 01
4Q 01
1Q 02
2Q 02
3Q 02
4Q 02
2Q 03
1Q 03
2003
Goal
31
63
87
87
107
123
140
150
218
202
250
3Q 03
Update
241
$9m left to
achieve
Return on Capital Shows Improvement
All indicators are based on the Bloomberg ROC Methodology.
1Q 03 Quarter Annualized ROC excludes $47 million after-tax cumulative effect of accounting change due to adoption of FAS 143.
6.4
7.0
7.8
15.5
15.5
14.3
13.8
4.3
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.7
0
5
10
15
20
3Q 02
4Q 02
1Q 03
2Q 03
3Q 03
Top Quintile S&P Industrials
Alcoa ROC
Alcoa Quarter Annualized
Divestiture and Technical Update
Divestiture Program
On track to realize proceeds of $750 million - $1 billion
from
divestiture program by Q2 2004
Technical Update: Inert Anode
Completed testing (3 weeks) in a commercial pot room
Continued progress on technology necessary to ensure
commercial viability
Further work needs to be done to
demonstrate anode life
targets and metal purity retention over long periods
Growth Initiatives Continue
Alumina Brownfield Expansions
Nearing completion of Jamaica 250,000 MT expansion
($115m)
Announced Suralco 250,000 MT expansion ($65m
total,
$36m Alcoa) to be completed by July 2005
Approved Pinjarra 600,000 MT expansion ($270m) to
be completed by 2005
Aluminum
MOU covering long-term alumina supply agreement
and potential to acquire up to 26% stake in Alba
MOU for feasibility study in Brunei, 24 months starting
4Q 2003
Approved $83 million mine expansion at Rockdale, TX
Summary
We continue to execute upon our strategy:
Earnings and margin improvement
Cost savings driven by ABS and focused cost
reduction
Balance sheet improvement
Continued cash generation through operations,
controlled capex and working capital reduction
Growth, technology and divestiture initiatives
Joseph C. Muscari
Executive Vice President
Group President - Asia and Latin
America
Key Messages
Latin America
Alcoa has attractive growth opportunities in Latin America
Strengthen and grow low-cost primary position
Focused downstream operations
The recent Aluminio transaction enabled Alcoa to take a
large step
forward in executing its Latin America strategy
Asia
Alcoa remains positive about our growth plans in this
region
Especially in China
We are making steady progress on implementing major
projects
Alcoas Latin America Business
Bauxite Mine
Refinery
Chemicals
Smelter
Powder
Power
FRP
Extrusions
Closures
Flexibles
AFL
Brazil
Venezuela
Colombia
Peru
Chile
Argentina
MRN
Alumar
Poços
Itapissuma
Sorocaba
Utinga
Tubarão
Santiago
La Plata
Alreyven
Lima
Bogota
Alphaville
Valencia
Itaipava
Buenos Aires
Machadinho
Surinam
Guyana
Alcoa Strategy in Latin America (I)
Focused downstream operations:
FRP:
Focus on high-value thin foil markets and exports
Packaging:
Sell PET and Latasa
Closures business aligned globally with CSI
Extrusions:
Leverage low-cost base to grow exports
Focus on differentiated segments in the domestic market
Alcoa Strategy in Latin America (II)
Strengthen and grow our low-cost primary position
Alcoas primary assets in Latin America
are among the
lowest cost in the system
Investments in
low-cost hydroelectric power generation
assets will secure the position of our smelters over the
long-term
Securing additional power in the region will provide the
basis for growth of smelting capacity
We are pursuing opportunities to expand refining capacity
at Alumar, and to develop bauxite mining to support
further growth in refinery
capacity
Source: CRU; Alcoa analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Production (million mt)
Pocos de
Caldos
Sao Luis
Brazils Low-cost Refineries
Global Average
(155 $/mt)
Full Operating
Cost
($/mt)
Global Refining Cost Curve - 2002
Operation
Capacity
(mt per year)
Sao Luis
718,000
Pocos de Caldas
300,000
Total
1,018,000
Brazils Low-cost Smelters
Pocos de
Caldas
Sao Luis
Source: CRU; Alcoa Analysis
Full Operating
Cost
($/mt)
Production (million mt)
Global Smelting Cost Curve - 2002
Global Average
(1,095 $/mt)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Operation
Capacity
(mt per year)
Sao Luis
199,000
Pocos de Caldas
93,000
Total
292,000
Current pipeline of projects has attractive economics
Capital costs of ~$1,100/MW of assured power
Delivered cost of $8 - 10/MWh
Project financing
Plan for Energy Self-supply
Current demand
(582MW)
Santa Isabel
Machadinho
Alcoas Energy Supply and Demand
(MW)
Estreito
Pai Quere
Barra Grande
Serra do Facão
Operating
Under
Construction
In
Development
Other
Concessions
Other
Projects
Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Attractive Upstream
Growth Opportunities
in Brazil
Mining:
Greenfield bauxite mine - Juruti
Refining:
Brownfield expansion at Alumar
Opportunities for further greenfield and brownfield
expansions
Smelting:
Brownfield expansion at Alumar
Additional greenfield smelters as we secure hydro power
All at attractive low investment cost
Alcoa is Actively Pursuing Growth in Asia
Asia is expected to comprise
55% of the worldwide Aluminum
consumption growth through 2010
Over 50% of Asias growth to occur in China
Participation in Asia offers tremendous opportunity for global
players
Deficit today in many high-value products
Potential for very low-cost production
Alcoa has established an important presence in the region over
many years
Alcoa is now pursuing an aggressive growth plan in Asia
Restructured can sheet joint venture with Kobe
Major Projects in China
Pingguo and Bohai
Global Sourcing
Growth in Chinas
Primary Capacity Had
Modest Impact on World Market
Chinas primary metal supply has moved into slight export
surplus
Capacity expanded strongly
Largely due to expansion of existing facilities
Little impact from small high-cost capacity exiting
Growth of production was more subdued
Deficit of high-cost alumina
Regional electricity shortages
Environmental crackdown
China remains a net importer of aluminum
Scrap and semi-fabricated imports off-setting primary
exports
Demand growth reflects developing economic structure
China Remains a Net Importer of
Aluminum
Source: CRU, China Customs
5.03
China Metal Balance - 2002
(M Tons)
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Primary
Production
Net Primary
Export
Net Scrap
Import
Available for
Fabrication
Net Semi-Fab
Import
Semi-Fab
Consumption
China
Western Industrial
Consumption Reflects Developing
Economic
Structure
Share (%) of Demand by Sector
Chinas consumption of primary
aluminum has historically been
in sectors which reflect a
developing economy:
Building and construction to
support rapid urbanization
Power infrastructure
Manufacturing for domestic
market, with some exports
However, recent demand growth
by sector is more reflective of
industrialized economies:
Automotive
Packaging
Sources: Antaike; Alcoa analysis
0
10
20
30
40
Construction
Power
Packaging
Consumer
Goods
Manufacturing
Transportation
Alcoa Has A
Significant Number of
Assets and Locations in China
Alcoa Locations in China: 2003
Other Alcoa locations
Flat Rolled Product Locations
Foil - Kunming
Foil - Shanghai
Sheet and Foil - Bohai
Closures - Tianjin
Headquarters
Beijing
Chemicals - Qingdao
Sales - Shanghai
Sales - Hong Kong
Primary Pingguo(1)
(1) JV still in process of formation
We Are Making Steady
Progress on
Implementing Major Projects
Alcoa Shanghai Aluminum Products
Installation of a new line to
expand foil production capacity by
7,000 mt is progressing well
Expect to start production at end of Q1 2004
Bohai
Agreed
to form a new joint venture with CITIC on the existing
Bohai site
The new JV will install a multi-stand hot-mill, cold mill, foil
mills and other finishing equipment
Will also operate the existing caster-based facility
Sheet and foil capacity will be 220,000mt
Hot-mill will start up in 2005
Pingguo
Good cooperation with Chalco in preparing for JV
Making progress towards securing power solution
Recap of Key Messages
Latin America
Competitive primary position in Latin America today
The region remains a focus for growth of our primary
business
Asia
Asia, especially China, is an important element of
Alcoas growth
strategy
Established positions in China give Alcoa a good
understanding of the market
Well positioned to pursue aggressive growth plans
Strong partnerships with CITIC and Chalco
Opportunities must meet or exceed Alcoas
expectations for financial returns
For Additional Information, contact:
William F. Oplinger
Director, Investor Relations
Alcoa
390 Park Avenue
New York, N.Y. 10022-4608
Telephone: (212) 836-2674
Facsimile: (212) 836-2813
www.alcoa.com
Appendix
Income and EPS Information
and
Reconciliation
In Millions
3Q 03
2Q 03
3Q 02
GAAP Net Income
$280
$216
$193
Discontinued Operations - operating
(income) loss
$3
-
$9
Discontinued Operations - Loss on
Divestitures
-
$13
-
GAAP Income from continuing operations
$283
$229
$202
Special Items (2):
Restructurings
$1
$12
$23
(Gain)/Loss on Divestitures
-
($10)
-
Income from Continuing Operations
excluding charges for restructurings and
divestitures (1)
$284
$231
$225
Income and EPS Information
and
Reconciliation (Continued)
In Millions
3Q 03
2Q 03
3Q 02
GAAP Earnings per share
$0.33
$0.26
$0.23
Discontinued Operations - operating
(income) loss
-
-
$0.01
Discontinued Operations - Loss on
Divestitures
-
$0.01
-
GAAP Earnings per share from continuing
operations
$0.33
$0.27
$0.24
Special Items:
Restructurings
-
$0.01
$0.03
(Gain)/Loss on Divestitures
-
($0.01)
-
EPS from Continuing Operations
excluding charges for restructurings and
divestitures
$0.33
$0.27
$0.27
Avg. Shares Diluted Outstanding
859
847
847
Reconciliation of Return on Capital
Notes:
Bloomberg Methodology calculates ROC based on the trailing 4 quarters.
**
1Q2003 Annualized Net Income excludes the cumulative effect of accounting change of $47m in the quarter, or
$188m annualized.
3Q 2003
2Q 2003
1Q 2003
Bloomberg
3Q 2003
Bloomberg
2Q 2003
Bloomberg
1Q 2003
In Millions
Methodology
Annualized
Methodology
Annualized
Methodology
Annualized
Net Income **
$424
$1,120
$346
$864
$353
$792
Minority Interest
$186
$216
$181
$300
$153
$236
Interest Expense (After-tax)
$255
$232
$266
$240
$263
$246
Numerator (Sum Total)
$865
$1,568
$793
$1,403
$769
$1,274
ST Borrowings
$160
$155
$153
$110
$147
$115
LT Borrowings
$8,011
$7,801
$7,942
$8,309
$7,896
$8,519
Preferred Equity
$55
$55
$55
$55
$55
$55
Minority Interest
$1,287
$1,398
$1,400
$1,443
$1,351
$1,332
Common Equity
$10,467
$10,698
$10,504
$10,181
$10,428
$9,950
Denominator (Sum Total)
$19,980
$20,107
$20,054
$20,098
$19,877
$19,971
ROC
4.3%
7.8%
3.9%
7.0%
3.9%
6.4%
(1) Alcoa believes that income from continuing
operations excluding charges for restructurings and divestitures is a measure that
should be presented in addition to income from continuing operations determined in accordance with GAAP. The following
matters should be considered when
evaluating this non-GAAP financial measure:
- -- Alcoa reviews the operating results of its businesses excluding the impacts of restructurings and divestitures. Excluding the
impacts of these charges can provide an additional basis of comparison. Management believes
that these charges are unusual
in nature, and would not be indicative of ongoing operating results. As a result, management believes these charges should be
considered in order to compare past, current, and future periods.
-- The economic impacts of the restructuring
and divestiture charges are described in the footnotes to Alcoa's financial statements.
Generally speaking, charges associated with restructurings include cash and non-cash charges and are the result of employee
layoff, plant consolidation
of assets, or plant closure costs. These actions are taken in order to achieve a lower cost base for
future operating results.
-- Charges associated with divestitures principally represent adjustments to the carrying value of certain assets and liabilities and
do not
typically require a cash payment. These actions are taken primarily for strategic reasons as the company has decided
not to participate in this portion of the portfolio of businesses.
-- Alcoa's growth over the last five years,
and the onset of the manufacturing recession led to the aforementioned charges in 2001
and 2002. Before the start of the current manufacturing recession, Alcoa last recorded charges associated with restructuring
and divestitures in 1997.
-- Restructuring and divestiture
charges are typically material and are considered to be outside the normal operations of a
business. Corporate management is responsible for making decisions about restructurings and divestitures.
-- There can be no assurance that
additional restructurings and divestitures will not occur in future periods. To compensate for this
limitation, management believes that it is appropriate to consider both income from continuing operations determined under
GAAP as well as
income from continuing operations excluding restructuring and divestiture charges.
(2) Special items totaled $15 of income for the second quarter before taxes and minority interests. The amount is comprised of
adjustments to the estimated proceeds on several businesses to
be divested that resulted in net gains, and was offset by
additional layoff charges primarily for businesses serving the aerospace and primary metals markets. After tax and minority
interests, special items amounted to a loss of
$2 in the quarter.
Notes to Reconciliation